Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
